INDIANAPOLIS — It’s been nine years since Donald Trump arrived on the American presidential scene, prompting me to finish a number of columns by simply saying, “Anything can happen.”
And so it goes. Republicans, gathered at their national convention in Milwaukee this week, are united and feeling exuberant about their chances in November.
U.S. Sen. Mike Braun, Indiana’s Republican nominee for governor, told me on Wednesday, “As long as we stay on point showing how the policies of the last three and a half years have not made sense and that they’ve got their own political issues, we’ve got a golden opportunity to be happening at the national level. I feel we’re in about as good a spot as we can be in.”
And U.S. Rep. Jim Banks, in his Tuesday night RNC address, said, “My friends, I can’t wait for Nov. 5 at 6:01 p.m. Eastern Time when the great state of Indiana is once again the first state on the board to give our Electoral College votes to the greatest president of my lifetime, my friend Donald J. Trump.”
But Braun was cautionary, adding, “You take nothing for granted. You never put the cart before the horse, especially in politics.”
What they are contrasting with — 81-year-old President Joe Biden — could be a mirage. Watching him haltingly stagger up the Air Force 1 lower stairs before departing from Las Vegas on Wednesday was a revealing and sad optic. The Trump campaign and Republicans may be peaking too soon against what could be a phantom opponent.
A series of national and battleground state polls show Biden’s path to victory is closing. An Associated Press-NORC Center Poll revealed two-thirds of Democrats believe he should withdraw from the race, while only three in 10 Democrats are confident he has the mental capacity to serve another term.
But the latest model by American University Prof. Allan J. Lichtman, which he has used to successfully predict presidential election winners since 1984 (with the exception of 2000’s Bush v. Gore which essentially ended up in a tie), still has Biden leading in nine of 13 “keys to the White House.”
A series of post-debate polls show Biden trailing in key battleground states while Democratic senatorial candidates have healthy leads. This prompted Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries to convey to Biden personally over the past week a loss of support by the party rank and file.
U.S. Rep. Adam Schiff, a close ally to Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, called for Biden to step aside. “While the choice to withdraw from the campaign is President Biden’s alone, I believe it is time for him to pass the torch,” Schiff said in a statement. “And in doing so, secure his legacy of leadership by allowing us to defeat Donald Trump in the upcoming election.”
Last year, Pelosi and her House leadership team stepped aside, passing the torch to the next generation. They took a lesson from Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died in 2020 just months before Biden won that election, allowing President Trump to nominate Judge Amy Coney Barrett, a former Notre Dame law professor. It dramatically shifted the power to the conservative wing.
Last Saturday at the state convention, I asked Indiana Democratic Chairman Mike Schmuhl whether he still supports a Biden nomination. “I do,” he said. “We all know that President Biden was unopposed in our primary. He received 100% of our primary vote, so he will have 100% support from our delegates in Chicago unless something changes.”
But Schmuhl, who managed then-South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s strong 2020 presidential campaign, then added, “I can safely say — like many Democrats across the country who do share concerns and are worried that the campaign can get a strong message out — [we] can build a narrative to take on Donald Trump, but I think we’re working through that right now. We’ll just have to see where we end up.”
Since his debate disaster in a series of interviews, Biden has suggested he might exit the race if word came from the “Lord Almighty” or if his health gave way (he was reported to have COVID on Wednesday), or if polling showed Vice President Kamala Harris had strength against Trump.
If Biden steps away, this sets up the “coronation” scenario for Harris, who polls even worse than Biden has. Others have suggested a truncated “primary” heading into the Democratic National Convention Aug. 19-22 in Chicago. Oh, to be a fly on the wall during conversations between Secretary Buttigieg and Schmuhl these days. Or in the war rooms of Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer or Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.
Should Biden bow out and Harris, a former prosecutor, ascend to a Democratic nomination, it would jolt the dynamic of the race. The age and fitness questions surrounding Biden would dissipate. It would thrust the Supreme Court’s repeal of Roe Vs. Wade (an unpopular decision with the broader electorate) to the forefront, particularly with the Heritage Foundation’s 2025 blueprint for a second Trump presidency taking aim at contraception and abortion drugs.
And it would feature a former DA against Trump, who was convicted on 34 felonies last spring.
The next week will reveal many of these compelling secrets. And it means ... anything can happen.
Anything.
Brian Howey is a senior writer and columnist for State Affairs/Howey Politics Indiana. Follow him on X @hwypol.
